中国养猪网讯：

　　US Cash Hog Prices Continue High

　　美国现货生猪价格继续保持高位

　　It’s mid-September and US Lean hogs are hovering around 93¢/lb. A year ago they were 68¢/lb. That’s an astonishing 25¢/lb. or at least $50/head to the better year over year. Huge difference – over $100 million a week better for the industry. It’s what happens when you are marketing fewer hogs year over year. Last week the US marketed 2,172,000 a year ago 2,427,000.

　　九月中旬的美国瘦肉型生猪价格在93美分/磅上下浮动。去年同期的价格在68美分/磅。这比去年同期大大增长了25美分/磅，即至少增长了​50美元/头。巨大的–变化给整个养猪行业带来一周超过1亿美元的增收。当市场上的出栏生猪比去年同期有所减少时，价格就会上涨。上周，美国市场上出栏生猪2,172,000头。去年同期，出栏2,427,000头。

　　We took many arrows last winter and spring for saying there was no Sow herd expansion underway. It appeared pundit sheep herd knowledge kept saying there was expansion. We didn’t agree. It appears either we knew what the industry was doing or were lucky, but the fact is there wasn’t expansion.

　　去年年底及今年年初，我们说现在没有母猪群扩张，遭到了许多反对。那些似乎只会养羊的权威们，一直在说存在扩群。我们不赞同这个观点。现在看来，要么是我们真正了解这个行业，要么是我们够幸运。不过，事实是没有扩群存在。

　　Expansion happening was like an urban myth (rural myth) perception but no reality. We couldn’t see it, corn a year ago was around $8.00 a bushel (many thinking it was going to $10), a year ago early weans about $8.00, feeder pigs $18.00, hog to corn ration 9.7, market hogs were about $40.00 under cost of production. Obviously an ideal recipe for expansion? Wasn’t happening despite what the tenured “Chicken Little” economists predicted from their cubicles. Never has there been expansion in such dire financial circumstances and never will be. The idea that if it was happening was wrong.

　　母猪群的扩张只是一个传说，事实并不存在。我们没看出有扩群的可能。一年前，玉米价格大约每蒲式耳8.00美元 (许多人以为会到每蒲式耳10美元)，断奶小猪的价格大约每头8.00美元，育肥猪价格在每头18.00美元，猪粮比价(玉米)为9.7。出栏生猪价格约每头40.00美元，低于生产成本。显然，扩群只是一种理想状态。无论那些胆小的经济学家们在办公室里怎么预测，这都不会发生。像这样财政状况如此严峻的时候，从来没有发生过扩群，以后也永远不会发生。存在扩群的想法是错误的。

　　Now we are benefiting from the tight supply of hogs and good domestic and export demand for pork. It’s not magic it’s the law of economics.

　　现在，我们从生猪供应紧张和国内以及出口对猪肉需求的增长中受益。这不是魔法，这是经济学规律。

　　FEED

　　饲料

　　The USDA last week’s crop reports predicts a harvest of 13.84 billion bushels corn. The largest annual crop ever. Cash Corn a year ago was near $8.00 a bushel, the average US corn price last week was around $4.80. We are all in the commodity business. We know supply can really hammer prices. The largest crop in history? When the combines start rolling we expect cash corn could move to $4.00 a bushel. Sure wonder why anyone would have held old crop grain of any type. The train is coming and its lower prices.

　　美国农业部上周作物收成报告中预测玉米的收成是138.4亿蒲式耳。这是玉米有史以来收成最好的一年。一年前，玉米现货价格接近每蒲式耳8.00美元。上周，美国玉米平均价格约为4.80美元。我们同在商品市场中，所以知道供给量的增加能真正冲击价格。这是史上最好的收成吗?当联合收割机开始滚动起来，我们预计玉米现货价格可能会到每蒲式耳4.00美元。的确不知道为什么会有人停留在原有的收成上。现在降价是大势所趋。

　　Wheat last week was $5.98 a bushel a year ago it was closer to $10. The USDA last week adjusted world ending stocks up 3.4 million metric tonnes (173-176.4).

　　上周，小麦价格为每蒲式耳5.98美元。小麦去年同期每蒲式耳近10美元。美国农业部上周将小麦全球存量调整为340万吨(相当于1.73 - 1.764亿蒲式耳)。

　　Soybeans on the other hand have very low ending stocks according to the USDA of 150 million bushels. Soybeans last week of $14.85 are still lower than last years $17.50.

　　另一方面，根据美国农业部的数据，大豆结存量较低，只有1.5亿蒲式耳。上周，大豆价格为14.85美元，仍然低于去年同期的17.50美元。

　　EXPANSION

　　扩群

　　We believe there is slight breeding herd expansion underway. In the breeding stock business like we are at Genesus, that’s what we pay attention to. In our opinion there is some expansion ongoing but it’s limited. It’s real hard to get sites or even get existing empty sow barns fired back up. Financing of barns, operating capital, labour, environment, state of repair of buildings etc. are all limiting activity. It’s real hard. We don’t see any way we can have significant expansion before next spring from all prior factors plus winter. We believe lean hogs over $1.00 next summer are in the cards. Why? No big change in swine numbers, with what we expect will be strong domestic and export demand. Throw in record high beef prices. We see the $1.00 plus.

　　我们相信存在少量的种猪群扩张。在加裕所从事种猪业务中，扩群是我们所关注的。在我们看来，一直都有一些扩群行动，但很有限。因为要找到合适的地点是很困难的，甚至找到要现成的空置猪舍转让都不容易。购买猪舍资金、运营资本、工人工资、环境以及建筑物维修等的状况都限制着扩群的开展。这真的很难。在明年春天到来之前，我们看不到任何大肆扩群的可能。原因是所有上述因素再加上个寒冬。我们相信明年夏天瘦肉型生猪价格会超过1.00美元/磅。为什么呢?出栏生猪数量没有大的变化，连同我们所预计的，国内和出口需求会大大增加。加上创纪录的高牛肉价格，我们将看到猪肉价格超过1.00美元/磅的。